TAB Betting Blog Separated not a lost cause at Warwick Farm

Horse Racing


Wednesday’s best racing comes from Warwick Farm and Sandown, tab.com.au form analyst Mitchell Lamb has identified a couple of worthy runners at each circuit.

WEDNESDAY’S BEST

Warwick Farm Race 2 No.11 Separated (Tim Clark) – $5

Heavily backed on debut after a pair of quality trials, Separated may have been a touch disappointing when fourth behind Eawase on ANZAC Day at Randwick. That was the common belief anyway, and I too was keen on her that day as well. But after looking at the replay a few times now, I think her effort was a very good one and in no way alters my opinion that the daughter of All Too Hard has her fair share of ability.

She might have over-raced a touch early; after finding a nice position behind the leaders, Separated pulled out from that trailing spot to hit the lead and momentarily looked the winner after they straightened. But she was overrun the last bit by the China Horse Club pair that fought out the race and she was nailed late by Columbina for third. Noticeably though, she did finish well in front of anything else that was up on the speed in a race that really was set up for the swoopers, including subsequent Warwick Farm winner I Like It Easy.

She now goes to the 1400 metres here in a race that probably won’t have as much pressure on up front; she draws inside a few of the other main chances, plus she would have taken plenty of benefit, both fitness and experience wise, from that debut effort.

Tim Clark sticks and so will I. Separated is poised to make amends for her ANZAC Day run.

AROUND THE GROUNDS

Sandown (Hillside) Race 4 No.3 Johnny Vinko (Regan Bayliss) – $4.40

A decent staying type in the making, Johnny Vinko has had a pretty stock standard prep for a distance horse and he should be ready to peak here at the fifth outing.

He was great fresh, breaking his maiden in a weakish race at Wangaratta over an unsuitable trip; he then raced flat second up, improved again third up when rising in trip to be nosed out by Runaway who went on to win the VRC St Leger and place in the SA Derby. Johnny Vinko then got caught up in a little bit of traffic and found one better in Into Rio, who also ran well in the SA Derby, so the form around him looks pretty solid.

He does have to take on older types here, but this field does taper off quite quickly after the first few chances in the market. And it’s really the other three-year-olds engaged that appear to be the dangers. I think Johnny’s got a little more upside than those, and as long as Regan Bayliss can slot in here from a slightly awkward draw it looks a highly suitable race for the son of Savabeel to rack up his second career win.

Sandown (Hillside) Race 7 No.4 Kaching (Damian Lane) – $5

Although he’s a consistent type, Kaching has arguably been a little disappointing thus far with only the two wins from 13 starts. But the form around him this time in is of a pretty decent standar, and in each one his starts Kaching has tried very hard. With that type of effort, in what looks like an average race, this looks a great chance for him to return to the winners’ stall.

Seven furlongs is definitely his best trip. It’s the distance of his two victories, including the one three starts back. Damian Lane, who rode him in that win at Pakenham, knows him well now and has probably figured out that he’s not the type of horse you can make several runs on or that you can expose him earlier than you have to. Kaching needs a bit of a smother and then he needs to make one run, because he’s certainly capable of being worried out of a race.

Reckon he gets the right run here, probably just off the speed would be ideal, and if the scenarios described above occur here this is the right type of race for him to succeed in at this stage of his career.

OVER THE ODDS

Warwick Farm Race 6 No.4 Vienna Romance (Jay Ford) – $10

2017 was a busy year for Vienna Romance. The Gerald Ryan-trained mare had a start in every month, except for March and December, totalling 15 runs in all, winning just the one race.

You have a look at some of the form around her though from the last part of that campaign – a win over Regimen, placings behind the likes of Piracy and Slow Burn, and close up efforts behind Machinegun Jubs and Zonk – and it reads very well for the race she’s in here. In fact, this is really a few notches below any of those events.

Ryan gave her a solid spell after that prep and we see her reappear for the first time since last November on the back of one barrier trial at her home track of Rosehill. She seemed to be very keen on that occasion and fresh in the run, pulling her way to the lead, before she was grabbed late in proceedings and didn’t have too much pressure applied to hold her position. I suspect that really would have taken a bit of an edge from her and she should be ready to rock and roll here first up over 1200 metres.

There looks to be a bit of speed in this, so expect her to be ridden fairly quietly, which is her normal pattern, and be saved for one crack at them in the straight. She’s better than most of these, even accounting for her poor strike rate, and can get home over the top of them.

QUADDIE SELECTIONS

Warwick Farm

Leg 1 – 1,5,9,10,12

Leg 2 – 2,4,6,8

Leg 3 – 4,5

Leg 4 – 2,7,9

($100 = 83.33%)

Sandown (Hillside)

Leg 1 – 2,9

Leg 2 – 5,6,7,9,14,15

Leg 3 – 4,5

Leg 4 – 9,11,12

($100 = 138.89%)



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